Real money, public trades. Every fill logged, every P&L tracked. Updated every 5 minutes from live Kalshi data.
Scotty only trades categories where the profit factor exceeds 1.0 after a full data review. Underperforming categories are disabled automatically.
Settled wins and losses — newest first. Click any column header to sort.
| Opened | Closed | Event | Side | Qty | Entry ¢ | Exit ¢ | P&L | Result |
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Every 15 minutes, Scotty pulls live order books across MLB home runs, MLB hits, Bitcoin daily moves, and more. The bot looks for binary markets where the crowd's implied probability on the YES side diverges from the historically observed hit rate — revealing a mismatch between perceived risk and true risk.
The strategy exploits a well-documented behavioral bias in prediction markets: bettors systematically over-price long shots and under-price near-certainties. When YES is priced at ≤20¢ — implying ≥80% probability — the NO side often carries a true edge. Scotty only fires when expected value is positive at a minimum 92% win rate breakeven threshold (at 8¢ YES / 92¢ NO cost).
Position size is determined by a fractional Kelly criterion, capped at 7% of the current account per trade. Maximum 6 simultaneous positions, with a hard limit of 1 position per underlying event to avoid correlated loss. Daily loss limits trigger an automatic pause — the bot never doubles down or chases losses.
Every Scotty order is a market taker order placed at the true NO ask price — meaning it fills immediately on the Kalshi exchange. No resting limit orders, no partial fills, no GTC exposure. Once a signal fires, the fill either happens in the next second or the trade is skipped entirely. This eliminates slippage from order book movement and ensures trade history reflects real executed prices.
Scotty Signal publishes the real-time trading activity of an automated algorithmic bot that operates on Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated event contract exchange. All signals, statistics, trade history, and performance data published on this site are informational records of the bot's own activity. We do not provide personalized investment advice, portfolio management, or trade execution on behalf of any subscriber or visitor.
Trading event contracts involves substantial risk of loss. Past performance — including any win rates, profit factors, or P&L figures shown on this site — is not indicative of future results. Markets are unpredictable. Strategy performance can and does degrade over time. You should only trade with money you can afford to lose entirely. No representation is made that any subscriber will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those displayed.
Nothing on this site constitutes financial, investment, trading, legal, tax, or regulatory advice of any kind. Scotty Signal is not a registered investment adviser, broker-dealer, futures commission merchant, or commodity trading adviser. Content is published for informational and educational purposes only. Always consult a licensed financial professional before making any trading or investment decisions.
Kalshi is regulated by the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as a designated contract market. Event contracts traded on Kalshi are binary options subject to CFTC oversight. Scotty Signal is an independent third party and is not affiliated with, endorsed by, or in any way associated with Kalshi Markets LLC or the CFTC. References to Kalshi are purely descriptive of the exchange where the bot operates.
To the maximum extent permitted by applicable law, Scotty Signal, its owners, operators, and contributors shall not be liable for any direct, indirect, incidental, special, consequential, or punitive damages arising from your use of this site, reliance on any signal or statistic published here, or any trading losses you incur. Your sole remedy for dissatisfaction with the service is to cancel your subscription and discontinue use of the site.
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